Should we wait for the Manual Transmission Supra? Update: Tada-san says no to MT?

kona61

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Of course it does. Toyota decided how the car should look. The overall interior design (as long as you ignore the obvious sourcing of buttons and switches) is also Toyota. The instrument panel is Supra-specific. And Toyota even had some control over the car's mechanics because suspension tuning is trivial and has to be done for each new model anyway.

Everything else is BMW.
The car's basic layout and mechanical parts were designed by BMW together with Z4.
It was tested in Germany alongside Z4.
It has a BMW built engine and a transmission built by ZF for BMW.
It uses the previous generation BMW iDrive for infotainment.
Every single part has the BMW logo stamped on it and a part number in BMW parts database.
To troubleshoot its issues, you need BMW software.
The VINs assigned to the cars come out of BMW VIN pool.
Magna-Steyr is a BMW contractor.

And I'm a BMW troll.
And yet it is better than the BMW’s .

Look, I’ve been following your threads for years as many times prior BMW owner. However, I think Toyota could make a manual happen as they make about 4 times as many cars as BMW. I still have strong doubts that it will, however.





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Dick

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I think Toyota could make a manual happen as they make about 4 times as many cars as BMW.
Here’s the reality — according to IHS the forecast sales of the Supra/Z4 is
~35K/year worldwide. Of that total, Supra represents ~15K. The manual transmission mix is likely to be 30% max. Honestly though, I bet it’s closer to 20% globally as some markets like China just don’t get MTs (from BMW at least).

Now consider if only the Supra is offered in a manual that would mean they would have to develop and implement a MT for just 3,000 to 4,500 units/yr (I bet it’s closer to 3k). Perhaps if BMW has a MT ready to go or if there was a desire to use it in the Z4 this might be a more likely scenario — but I just don’t see it happening.
 

justbake

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Of course it does. Toyota decided how the car should look. The overall interior design (as long as you ignore the obvious sourcing of buttons and switches) is also Toyota. The instrument panel is Supra-specific. And Toyota even had some control over the car's mechanics because suspension tuning is trivial and has to be done for each new model anyway.

Everything else is BMW.
The car's basic layout and mechanical parts were designed by BMW together with Z4.
It was tested in Germany alongside Z4.
It has a BMW built engine and a transmission built by ZF for BMW.
It uses the previous generation BMW iDrive for infotainment.
Every single part has the BMW logo stamped on it and a part number in BMW parts database.
To troubleshoot its issues, you need BMW software.
The VINs assigned to the cars come out of BMW VIN pool.
Magna-Steyr is a BMW contractor.

And I'm a BMW troll.
Because you join the forum to talk at us as if we don't already know what you've listed above for years. The conversation has moved well passed what you're saying so while us metaphorical graduate students are discussing how supply & demand doesn't always work in a vacuum, you're butting into the conversation after taking Econ101 explaining the basics of how supply & demand works as if we don't know that already.
 

ynguldyn

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Look, I’ve been following your threads for years as many times prior BMW owner. However, I think Toyota could make a manual happen as they make about 4 times as many cars as BMW. I still have strong doubts that it will, however.
All this time I've been trying to make a single point, which is simple but difficult to accept by the local crowd: the Supra is designed and built by BMW, so only the hardware offered by BMW can go into it. It is clear that BMW has no interest in offering manuals. So, Toyota has two choices: work with ZF directly on adapting an existing transmission from BMW F2x/F3x, or go to Aisin and have them develop a brand new unit. In both cases, they would have to take over engineering works (build cars with these transmissions, write new software for them, do both instrumental and road tests, crash analysis, etc.) from BMW. All of that to satisfy maybe a few thousand buyers across the whole world. Does this sound realistic?

So, again, my point: manuals will only happen if BMW decides to develop that option. As of now, they have not.
Because you join the forum to talk at us as if we don't already know what you've listed above for years. The conversation has moved well passed what you're saying so while us metaphorical graduate students are discussing how supply & demand doesn't always work in a vacuum, you're butting into the conversation after taking Econ101 explaining the basics of how supply & demand works as if we don't know that already.
In terms of supply and demand, this conversation sounds to me like this:
- Toyota will supply manuals!
- How will it do that?
- Because demand!

This is not even Econ101 but more like middle school.
 

justbake

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In terms of supply and demand, this conversation sounds to me like this:
- Toyota will supply manuals!
- How will it do that?
- Because demand!

This is not even Econ101 but more like middle school.
I'm dead, you missed my point entirely! Hahaha I am not talking about the supply and demand of any sort here, it is used as an educational concept in the academic metaphor.

But forget it, it went over your head and I don't want to reexplain it. The point is that we are discussing things with the points you made already in our consideration when we are doing so. All you have done is come here and talk at us as if we are in some sort of alternate reality where Toyota did everything. You are ignoring that a good portion of users here are BMW owners themselves (I personally own 2) and have heard information from both side when making their own personal claims and observations. Youre welcome to disagree, but it is your "I'm from a BMW forum and everyone else here is blind to reality" tone that has no place here
 
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ynguldyn

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I'm dead, you missed my point entirely! Hahaha I am not talking about the supply and demand of any sort here, it is used as an educational concept in the academic metaphor.
You're the one who missed the point: what you believe to be a grad student level discussion is really no different from how my 7th grade daughter argues with her friends. Which is what I illustrated with that little dialog above.

Dunning and Kruger strike again.
But forget it, it went over your head and I don't want to reexplain it. The point is that we are discussing things with the points you made already in our consideration when we are doing so. All you have done is come here and talk at us as if we are in some sort of alternate reality where Toyota did everything. You are ignoring that a good portion of users here are BMW owners themselves (I personally own 2) and have heard information from both side when making their own personal claims and observations. Youre welcome to disagree, but it is your "I'm from a BMW forum and everyone else here is blind to reality" tone that has no place here
The number of BMWs one owns or have owned and one's participation in a specific online forum are completely irrelevant. What is relevant is the understanding of car manufacturing in general and BMW production specifically. I will welcome a well constructed argument in favor of Toyota making its own transmissions for Supras coming from a person with concrete knowledge of these areas - I will be happy if someone can prove me wrong because I want a Supra in the family but can only make it happen if it's sold with a manual. I haven't seen any arguments like that yet. In the meantime, your saying that I'm using the wrong tone of voice is not making any of my points invalid.
 

justbake

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You're the one who missed the point: what you believe to be a grad student level discussion is really no different from how my 7th grade daughter argues with her friends. Which is what I illustrated with that little dialog above.
Dunning and Kruger strike again.
That conversation was never with me, you have yet to address anything I have said without repeating your same narrative this forum already knows in the same way a Econ101 student keeps repeating the definition.

The number of BMWs one owns or have owned and one's participation in a specific online forum are completely irrelevant. What is relevant is the understanding of car manufacturing in general and BMW production specifically. I will welcome a well constructed argument in favor of Toyota making its own transmissions for Supras coming from a person with concrete knowledge of these areas - I will be happy if someone can prove me wrong because I want a Supra in the family but can only make it happen if it's sold with a manual. I haven't seen any arguments like that yet.
The automotive industry today is an industry of suppliers, not just manufacturers. Toyota doesn't have to make their own transmission, they just need a company to produce it to their specifications. Magna steyr receives parts from all over the word when assembling the vehicles they do, why does is different for Toyota? They made it work with Aisin, Subaru, and the J160 in the very same way. If


In the meantime, your saying that I'm using the wrong tone of voice is not making any of my points invalid.
I didn't say it did, don't put words in my mouth.
 

s219

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I think he's saying that if Toyota has to go it alone with the engineering and integration for a manual transmission, it probably won't happen due to limited scale. They'd need this to be of interest to BMW and be able to share the development costs to make it feasible. I can see that. (And doesn't matter who supplies the hardware).
 

justbake

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I think he's saying that if Toyota has to go it alone with the engineering and integration for a manual transmission, it probably won't happen due to limited scale. They'd need this to be of interest to BMW and be able to share the development costs to make it feasible. I can see that. (And doesn't matter who supplies the hardware).
But that isn’t what he said. He said Toyota can’t provide a transmission to Magna Steyr because BMW has did that, that, and the other.

While I do agree the economies of scale don’t make sense to Toyota to do so, that doesn’t mean they can’t.

I think we should be looking to the M3 pure’s release for the 6mt in the supra personally, as both companies can/will benefit from it
 

Bryster

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Excuse me? Don't waltz your ass into this forum and not expect to get your ass set on fire after accusing us of being delusional. What I said was fact. Want to troll? Go troll somewhere else.
Don't get flared up, he's another Realist/SS090/etc type. they all use the same tactics.
 

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That conversation was never with me, you have yet to address anything I have said without repeating your same narrative this forum already knows in the same way a Econ101 student keeps repeating the definition.
I'm talking to you like I talk with my daughter. Econ101 level will have to be later, once we get past the middle school stuff.

I'm not addressing anything you said because you haven't said anything of substance - only complaints that I'm not showing enough respect to this forum's oldtimers.
The automotive industry today is an industry of suppliers, not just manufacturers. Toyota doesn't have to make their own transmission, they just need a company to produce it to their specifications.
And what will those specifications be?
While I do agree the economies of scale don’t make sense to Toyota to do so, that doesn’t mean they can’t.
I never said they can't. I only said it'd be an idiotic decision if BMW doesn't support them in that. Which at this point they aren't.

(I really can't believe I'm still repeating this.)
I think we should be looking to the M3 pure’s release for the 6mt in the supra personally, as both companies can/will benefit from it
M3 will use S58 and any transmission used there will be customized to that engine. S58 is a derivative of B58 but there could be enough difference to make a direct transplant impossible.

Also, there's some weird shit happening with M3 transmissions. BMW is playing games and though I previously said Pure would come with a manual I'm not so sure anymore (I'm not even sure this Pure thing will happen at all).
 

kona61

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I'm talking to you like I talk with my daughter. Econ101 level will have to be later, once we get past the middle school stuff.

I'm not addressing anything you said because you haven't said anything of substance - only complaints that I'm not showing enough respect to this forum's oldtimers.

And what will those specifications be?
I never said they can't. I only said it'd be an idiotic decision if BMW doesn't support them in that. Which at this point they aren't.

(I really can't believe I'm still repeating this.)
M3 will use S58 and any transmission used there will be customized to that engine. S58 is a derivative of B58 but there could be enough difference to make a direct transplant impossible.

Also, there's some weird shit happening with M3 transmissions. BMW is playing games and though I previously said Pure would come with a manual I'm not so sure anymore (I'm not even sure this Pure thing will happen at all).
On another note, I haven’t been keeping up with the G80, but I thought someone mentioned in an interview there would definitely be a manual M3?
 

ynguldyn

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On another note, I haven’t been keeping up with the G80, but I thought someone mentioned in an interview there would definitely be a manual M3?
You're probably thinking about this: https://www.bmwblog.com/2019/05/13/...heel-drive-version-and-a-manual-transmission/

Unfortunately, all he confirms is that they built test vehicles with RWD and manuals. I knew it months before he said that. However, there's been some culling done recently to the G80 lineup, and what is not clear to me is which of the previously tested versions are going to remain and reach series production. My best interpretation of the information I have is that the mid-power version was dropped, and the "Pure" (may no longer be its name) version retuned for more power. The question that remains is what other changes were made to that version.
 

kona61

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You're probably thinking about this: https://www.bmwblog.com/2019/05/13/...heel-drive-version-and-a-manual-transmission/

Unfortunately, all he confirms is that they built test vehicles with RWD and manuals. I knew it months before he said that. However, there's been some culling done recently to the G80 lineup, and what is not clear to me is which of the previously tested versions are going to remain and reach series production. My best interpretation of the information I have is that the mid-power version was dropped, and the "Pure" (may no longer be its name) version retuned for more power. The question that remains is what other changes were made to that version.
Hm. I wish they would just keep the lineup simple honestly. I’m sick of the M4 CS Competion Stage 2 Performance Sound crap, so unnecessarily confusing. I just hope the manual sticks around, it made burnouts easy in the F80 haha.
 

justbake

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I'm talking to you like I talk with my daughter. Econ101 level will have to be later, once we get past the middle school stuff.
No shit, I have been saying that since the start.
I'm not addressing anything you said because you haven't said anything of substance - only complaints that I'm not showing enough respect to this forum's oldtimers.
You have ignored all the substance, you have yet to explain why supply chains don't work the way they do and how BMW production is different.

And what will those specifications be?
the exact specifications are irrelevant and are used to explain the business model but that does not take away from the substance that you're welcome to address

I never said they can't. I only said it'd be an idiotic decision if BMW doesn't support them in that. Which at this point they aren't.


(I really can't believe I'm still repeating this.)
You didn't say that in either of your previous responses to me. You said "it doesn't work like that" without any sort of explanation of why or how. This is your hypocritical lack of substance.

(I can't believe you think these things don't work both ways)

M3 will use S58 and any transmission used there will be customized to that engine. S58 is a derivative of B58 but there could be enough difference to make a direct transplant impossible.

Also, there's some weird shit happening with M3 transmissions. BMW is playing games and though I previously said Pure would come with a manual I'm not so sure anymore (I'm not even sure this Pure thing will happen at all).
The 6mt for the s58 and the b58tu don't need to be the exact part numbers to share development cycles
 

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