Toyota News Thread

[KahnBB6]

I posted this a couple of days ago on the ClubLexus forum and it seems relevant to share it here as well given this discussion about Toyota's standing on hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen internal combustion.

I'm not happy about this news and want to learn more as it is further researched but this could add further complication to this overall situation with hydrogen.

My post there, copied and pasted here:

......

I have been hoping for further development of hydrogen production and refueling infrastructure as much as I am for the technology on the battery electric side of things and this article from a couple of days ago was... not a fun thing to read.

We'll have to see how this research and peer review goes but if this holds true then it may not be good for using hydrogen as a vehicle fuel source in either fuel cell electrics, heavy industrial applications AND niche sports model hydrogen internal combustion models and conversions.

Basically the issue is NOT the water vapor emissions from HCV's or hydrogen internal combustion engines but rather inevitable leaks and venting of high pressure pure hydrogen into the atmosphere on a massive collective scale through the very infrastructure that produces it, stores it, transfers it from one container to another and from the storage tanks and fittings in hydrogen powered vehicles.

The BMW Hydrogen 7 had a quirk where if you didn't drive and use up the pressurized hydrogen within a certain amount of time it would automatically begin to vent out some of that pure H2 to relieve excess internal pressure.

https://jalopnik.com/new-hydrogen-research-reminds-us-humanity-just-cant-win-1850303466
https://scitechdaily.com/switching-to-hydrogen-fuel-could-cause-long-term-climate-consequences/

New Hydrogen Research Reminds Us Humanity Just Can't Win With Fuel Alternatives
Too much hydrogen in the sky could limit atmospheric breakdown of methane, researchers warn.
There is no perfect energy source, nothing that will power our vehicles without some kind of catch. Consider hydrogen. For decades it’s been propped up as a worthy alternative to oil, even if infrastructure-related hiccups seem to always hold it back from reaching its full potential. Nevertheless, there seems to be a bit of space left for hydrogen-powered vehicles even in a battery electric-dominated world. But new research indicates that hydrogen buildup could have adverse effects on the climate, not terribly unlike the fuel it’s meant to replace.

The study was conducted by Princeton University and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association. Hydrogen reacts with another molecule called hydroxyl radical (OH) that, on its own, typically reduces the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The researchers found that once a certain threshold of hydrogen emissions is surpassed, OH cannot do its job, leading to an overabundance of methane. From Sci Tech Daily:

The hydroxyl radical also reacts with hydrogen gas in the atmosphere. And since a limited amount of OH is generated each day, any spike in hydrogen emissions means that more OH would be used to break down hydrogen, leaving less OH available to break down methane. As a consequence, methane would stay longer in the atmosphere, extending its warming impacts.

According to Bertagni, the effects of a hydrogen spike that might occur as government incentives for hydrogen production expand could have decades-long climate consequences for the planet.

“If you emit some hydrogen into the atmosphere now, it will lead to a progressive build-up of methane in the following years,” [postdoctoral researcher at High Meadows Environmental Institute Matteo] Bertagni said. “Even though hydrogen only has a lifespan of around two years in the atmosphere, you’ll still have the methane feedback from that hydrogen in 30 years from now.”

In the study, the researchers identified the tipping point at which hydrogen emissions would lead to an increase in atmospheric methane and thereby undermine some of the near-term benefits of hydrogen as a clean fuel. By identifying that threshold, the researchers established targets for managing hydrogen emissions.

It’s critical that hydrogen emissions are kept below that tipping point, even if it’s being used to broadly replace fossil fuels. Hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles emit only water vapor of course, but the key here is that there are always leaks in the production and transport process. And if enough methane and hydrogen are leaked together, well — you may as well have just burned gasoline.

“Managing leakage rates of hydrogen and methane will be critical,” Bertagni said. “If you have just a small amount of methane leakage and a bit of hydrogen leakage, then the blue hydrogen that you produce really might not be much better than using fossil fuels, at least for the next 20 to 30 years.”

So maybe it’s good that automakers aren’t hurrying to pump out hydrogen fuel-cell cars in droves. Maybe. Lithium production will have to increase six-fold by 2035 to support the number of EVs manufacturers plan to build, electricity is likely to get real pricey at night and battery-powered big rigs will need charging stations supplied with a small town’s worth of energy to stay on the road. Meanwhile, synthetic e-fuels are still exorbitantly inexpensive because the process to create them is remarkably inefficient — and even if that weren’t true, they’d still pollute city air as badly the real stuff. There are no easy answers here.

On yet another front, synthetic CO2 neutral gasoline and diesel in the short term seems to not have any surprise downside in this sense other than that it is produced with recaptured CO2 and combusts to spit out that same CO2 all over again. So it is not adding any CO2 back that wasn't there already. Of course it will be at a higher cost per gallon or liter than conventional gasoline or diesel. But eventually (talking decades from now) you presumably will have a harder time producing the stuff... eventually. But we're not there quite yet with synthetic fuels.

....

I look forward to reading more studies on the long term effects of hydrogen leakage into the atmosphere but so far this is not fun news.

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[PerformanceSound]

Yeah, so much has changed in the world in such a short time, it’s really a toss up at this point. I was asking some reputable folks, “what’s Toyota’s next move?” and “will ICE powered cars be completely phased out?” The response I got was good news (at least for sports car and large truck/suv buyers).

EPA may be indefinitely exempting fuel-powered vehicles to sportscars/motorsports and heavy duty SUV’s and Trucks. Potentially requiring economy cars (sedans, midsized SUV’s, and midsized trucks) to be fully electrified.

I honestly don’t mind this. For a grocery getter and daily car, EV makes sense. For weekend and purpose built vehicles, bring out the ICE powered whips!

 

[FLtrackdays]

He meant left his position...


Doubtful... There's little support, demand and infrastructure for it. Toyota is not going to splurge like Elon for super hydrogen-ators?, hydro-chargers? Lol.
Biden made up his mind, doubtful the next guy will be like hey what happened to the hydrogen...
Energy output shortcomings are well documented. No one wants to visit the gas station 3 times more than gasoline.. as much as I like and support the idea.

It's either hybrid or BEV as scientists are discovering or coming up with other mediums and other charge techniques...

Problem with BEV is the zombie apocalypse survival type people will never trust something that they can't store. Yes, technically they can, but that's costly and degrades/depletes overtime as well. And obviously aforementioned lack of infrastructure. Forget that. A tree knocks out a pole, whole city loses power for days..

There's lots of if scenarios for sure like, petrol truck crashed didn't arrive to station.. draught, dam hydropower... Angry birds attack wind turbines, aliens attack solar reflectors, Godzilla attacks nuclear power stations.

Other thing that no one touched base on is the use cases in US vs EU are rather different. As in car dependency.. yeah EU has more cars per capita than US, but culture (for walking, biking, etc.) and lack of public transportation in US, causes people to drive longer distances. So, mileage expectation or anxiety in US, I'd think would be far greater than EU. So, adaptation could take longer
On the other hand, especially in suburbs more people have garages vs high rise buildings with only street parking in cities.. in EU, it may be, total guess here, more difficult to erect charge stations and find large accommodating places for it. maybe once charge time is reduced to 10mins or so .
//Random thoughts off

Love this take! It’s so true. Everyone wants to bury their head in the sand to public opinion. The we know what’s best mentality and ignoring the fact that most do not want to spend hours of their lives at a charging station on a road trip or keep that grid draining monster plugged in all night sucking away at everyone‘s power, increasing energy cost for everyone. It’s not as popular as the car magazines push. You talk to people that don’t buy car magazines or on car forums (believe it or not, I actually know people like this), they are the last to want to slap on a mega voltage charging station in their homes or take even one second longer at a charging station than they do at a gas station. Most people have/live busy lives. It’s the last thing they want to do….

Akio, heaven forbid, was taking a gradual approach and listen to his consumers. How dare he!!!! Of course I’m being tongue in cheek. It’s a car forum. I personally like the guy = increase love for the brand. Great job I hope he can continue to fight against all this political bias in the car industry. Elon did a lot of the same with EVs. Broke away from the industry with his stand alone one price dealers in shopping malls. People loved buying cars without all the bullshit associated with it. Capitalism at its best. Love it!!!! I personally feel we need more of it. Smart innovators following supply and demand. Someone gluing themselves to a Van Gogh painting or laying down in front of a coal mine isn’t as attractive as they believe. I want a better energy supply like anyone else. What I don’t want is politicians, lobbyist, self interest groups with a lot less smarts than Akio making these decisions. Rock on Akio for doing what makes sense

 

[F1 Silver Arrows]

One has to first question why Toyota was not all in on EV's with Akio, and then all of a sudden 10 new EV's coming with Sato. Get the answer to that, and the automotive industries "strategy" will make alot more sense.

Personally, I don't think Akio "voluntarily" left.

Toyoda-san eventually relented with EVs, Sato-san is just carrying out the changes that he set out for him.

We'll eventually know in a few years if your suspicion is true, but I think it is still business as usual, because the new team is still keeping the diversification strategy that was put in place before the management change happened. It's just that we're putting a bit more emphasis on EVs now.

 

[GRMan]

It is now Japan's national strategy to embrace hydrogen energy going forward. Times are changing fast.

Japan teams with Australia to create hydrogen supply chain (gasworld.com)

 

[PerformanceSound]

It is now Japan's national strategy to embrace hydrogen energy going forward. Times are changing fast.

Japan teams with Australia to create hydrogen supply chain (gasworld.com)

I've preached this so many times, and people critized me. Hydrogen is key! The only problem is no energy company wanted to invest in it (I mean, I get it....why would an oil company shoot themselves in the foot right?). Korean companies are advancing in the Hydrogen arena, and once Japan and Europe see the benefit....it will be a fantastic achievement.

Even with EV's....if they allow ICE powered cars to be limited to sports cars and HD trucks, and the rest (sedans, midsize suv's & trucks, etc...) as EV only, that wouldn't be so bad.

 

[F1 Silver Arrows]

I've preached this so many times, and people critized me. Hydrogen is key! The only problem is no energy company wanted to invest in it (I mean, I get it....why would an oil company shoot themselves in the foot right?). Korean companies are advancing in the Hydrogen arena, and once Japan and Europe see the benefit....it will be a fantastic achievement.

Even with EV's....if they allow ICE powered cars to be limited to sports cars and HD trucks, and the rest (sedans, midsize suv's & trucks, etc...) as EV only, that wouldn't be so bad.

The issue is that gas prices are getting astronomically high.

 

[FLtrackdays]

The issue is that gas prices are getting astronomically high.

True… but ours (over here ) was astronomically low only 3 years ago, in the $2 range. Had nothing to do with Covid but government constraints. Energy independence was a nice buffer while we’re amping up other energy options. My 93 octane gas is in the $4 range for a gallon (almost 4 liters as y’all know).

So Akio Toyoda was spot on imo for our market in the US. The majority of our consumers/drivers can’t afford an EV, don’t have the infrastructure, or want to further tax us to shorten the gap of current demand for these things. I truly believe Akio knows the batteries only last so long and is looking at the long term, not just short. What would their reputation or cost be in 5 years when you have to replace these batteries? What if the chip makers in Taiwan don’t get along with China? What if China raises battery cost? What if government incentives change in various countries and he’s stuck with only EV w/out the artificial government inflation ($$$ tax dollars) to fuel these things? These are just a few decisions the guy has to make way beyond my pay grade.

Many are quick to get emotional and only think short term. He seems to be more grounded and less likely to be pushed around by outside of Japan political interest. I personally love that. Do your job. Do what’s best for Toyota and his brand. The Prius is looking better and better. The MPG on that sucker is phenomenal and it’s no longer a box on wheels.

Keep up the great work Akio! One less thing I have to buy w/out political influence or a damn message (current whim) being shoved down my throat. All in

 

[KahnBB6]

One thing to keep in mind is not to assume that the current cons of today's battery cell technology isn't going to be what is making its way into new cars by the end of this decade.

EV batteries are NOT a static technology that will never evolve. In a few years they are going to be charging faster and lasting longer and the charging infrastructure will by then be much more extensive than it is right now. That will begin with solid state packs.

We're likely looking into the early 2030's before the majority of EV battery packs will make another leap and begin to become both much smaller and significantly lighter than they are today. I think the industry is just too invested in product cycles based on lithium-ion cells at this time to see more than some niche models taking advantage of the upcoming very latest tech.

So yes, at current time the traditional hybrid or range extended electrified cars are probably the best bet except for those folks who are happy with the EV offerings currently on sale and who won't have appreciable issues with range and charging within their normal use routes.

For right now I'm just happy for these last hurrah internal combustion sportscar models since there isn't a perfected battery pack cell technology on sale yet that can truly handle in series production cars hard high performance driving. There will be... but not right now.

I see this as why as vehicle products get electrified right now... it is often larger and more average use vehicles that go full electric first because they just aren't extremely demanding on the drivelines in most cases.

Anyway... superior pack technology, super-capacitors, 2-speed or three speed transmissions (although I am interested to experience firsthand just how good or not good Toyota's simulated manual experience will be assuming it will be much more focused on engagement than gimmick), independent inboard wheel motors with programmable LSD-like torque vectoring functions, and hopefully some amplified actual driveline noise and nearly straight cut gears are all things I am hoping for in the fun models.

I think Akio Toyoda had to allow electrification to move forward no matter what. I honestly don't think he's against it (he loves great engines, shifting gears and all the sensations they give us as much as we do) but I do think he understood that the most promising version of 100% BEV tech *will* come but is still in the R&D stages.

Further, we are still going to have all the good combustion powered models for a long time to come even after ICE sales cut off some years from now. Just within Toyota alone we have three great sportscars (four if you count markets that get the GR Yaris) on sale brand new and they will be supported for quite some time just like the Supra MKIII, Supra MKIV, AE86, every generation of the MR2, every generation of the Celica GT-Four, Z30 Soarer/SC, Chaser/Mark II/Cresta/Cressida, Starlet, etc.

 

[FLtrackdays]

For right now I'm just happy for these last hurrah internal combustion sportscar models since there isn't a perfected battery pack cell technology on sale yet that can truly handle in series production cars hard high performance driving. There will be... but not right now.

YUS

 

[Tsuki8]

More GR cars coming through the pipeline from Sato.

"Sato implied the Gazoo Racing brand's expansion will be led by his predecessor, Akio Toyoda, who is now the company's chairman."
Music to my ears.

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a43754276/toyota-new-gr-performance-models-confirmed/

GR MR2 wen?
GR Prius wen?

 

[Bryster]

Give me the Manual Camry

 

[KahnBB6]

Give me the Manual Camry

I'd rather GR build a mid size RWD performance sedan with a manual option that is the spiritual successor to the Chaser Tourer V.

....And a GR MR2, GR Celica, GR86 3rd gen, GR Supra 6th gen and whatever else Akio Toyoda wants to do with that lovely G16E-GTS engine.

And as very unlikely as it is... while I'm dreaming... a GR Soarer successor to the JZZ30 manual LSD hardtop model. Upscale driver-focused big Toyota drift coupe with a high-revving over-square engine.

The last one isn't likely... but a turbo Chaser RWD sedan successor might be. They even hinted/teased about some kind of GR performance sedan many months ago. Everyone speculated about a GR Prius, GR Camry or GR Corolla sedan at the time.

 

[BMWAF]

https://techcrunch.com/2023/05/12/toyota-japan-exposed-millions-locations-videos/

 

[J29DB03]

Oops

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