The End of An Era... the last Supra?

KCK455

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Hi all,

I haven't posted much about MkV much but with all that has occurred this year I think we have seen the last Supra come to its end of production rather abruptly.

Personally I believe the joint production run between Toyota and BMW for what was effectively a niche product will end. There's no way I can see it survive the coming 2 or more years in a marketplace that would have become a massive liquidation event.

If you're cashed up or have good cash flow you'll find opportunities in all the excesses of the past and malinvested money in cars and assets as they appear in fire sales as people concentrate on the essentials.

On a positive note if you have the ability to weather it out then the MkV will be in many countries still one of the rarest cars around so it's got a bright future on the other side of what's happening as a collectable imo.

I remember in my mind a for sale sign on a 1930's Cadillac (?) for $100 (low price for its time) in a b+w photo during the aftermath of the 1929 collapse followed by the great depression.

Just my forecast of the future based on the past. What do you think?


3EA87356-4889-410C-B2CC-2D86F0F083F1.jpeg
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madweazl

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I don't see anything that suggests we'll enter a depression.
 

Supra60

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Hi all,

I haven't posted much about MkV much but with all that has occurred this year I think we have seen the last Supra come to its end of production rather abruptly.

Personally I believe the joint production run between Toyota and BMW for what was effectively a niche product will end. There's no way I can see it survive the coming 2 or more years in a marketplace that would have become a massive liquidation event.

If you're cashed up or have good cash flow you'll find opportunities in all the excesses of the past and malinvested money in cars and assets as they appear in fire sales as people concentrate on the essentials.

On a positive note if you have the ability to weather it out then the MkV will be in many countries still one of the rarest cars around so it's got a bright future on the other side of what's happening as a collectable imo.

I remember in my mind a for sale sign on a 1930's Cadillac (?) for $100 (low price for its time) in a b+w photo during the aftermath of the 1929 collapse followed by the great depression.

Just my forecast of the future based on the past. What do you think?


3EA87356-4889-410C-B2CC-2D86F0F083F1.jpeg
I don't think it will get to that point, but do think there will be buying opportunities for people who have the cash or great credit. I think a lot will depend on how long this thing lasts. The longer, the worse it will be. It's anyone's guess at least his point being as this is unprecedented. Think positive!!
 

tfoxyr

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My understanding is that the deal with bmw is to make supra and z4 until 2026 (z4->2025, supra->2026), if something like a depression hits , sure companies with luxury cars need to make some decisions but the sure thing is that the parts , tooling etc are done with 2 to 4 years contracts so after that maybe premature cancelation or less cars produced.
But generally capitalism has phases , every about 10 years there is a depression, sometimes small enough that it doesnt affect so much the average dude.
 

phm14

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Hi all,

I haven't posted much about MkV much but with all that has occurred this year I think we have seen the last Supra come to its end of production rather abruptly.

Personally I believe the joint production run between Toyota and BMW for what was effectively a niche product will end. There's no way I can see it survive the coming 2 or more years in a marketplace that would have become a massive liquidation event.

If you're cashed up or have good cash flow you'll find opportunities in all the excesses of the past and malinvested money in cars and assets as they appear in fire sales as people concentrate on the essentials.

On a positive note if you have the ability to weather it out then the MkV will be in many countries still one of the rarest cars around so it's got a bright future on the other side of what's happening as a collectable imo.

I remember in my mind a for sale sign on a 1930's Cadillac (?) for $100 (low price for its time) in a b+w photo during the aftermath of the 1929 collapse followed by the great depression.

Just my forecast of the future based on the past. What do you think?


3EA87356-4889-410C-B2CC-2D86F0F083F1.jpeg
"Excesses of the past"? Sounding a bit post-apocalyptic, aren't we? This is not the Great Depression. The US economy will come back quickly, once restrictions are lifted. Sure, you could find yourself over extended with loss of income, and I'm not saying there won't be deals out there. Many manufacturers have started marketing deferred payments "deals", which actually just extend your term, adding interest cost to the loan, or increase the payment amount.
Where did you hear MK5 production had stopped? Last I checked, the was plenty of '20 inventory on the ground. I'd bet if there actually was a break in production, it may have been planned as part of the MY production schedule. Toyota is the most profitable automaker in the world, and with BMW, have a substantial investment in bringing the new car to market. Just breaking even will be a long term process, of course. I would not bet that CV19 will kill the Supra...
 
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jtsang25

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Definently don't think we will go into a depression.
"Excesses of the past"? Sounding a bit post-apocalyptic, aren't we? This is not the Great Depression. The US economy will come back quickly, once restrictions are lifted. Sure, you could find yourself over extended with loss of income, and I'm not saying there won't be deals out there. Many manufacturers have started marketing deferred payments "deals", which actually just extend your term, adding interest cost to the loan, or increase the payment amount.
Where did you hear MK5 production had stopped? Last I checked, the was plenty of '20 inventory on the ground. I'd bet if there actually was a break in production, it may have been planned as part of the MY production schedule. Toyota is the most profitable automaker in the world, and with BMW, have a substantial investment in bring the new car to market. Just breaking even will be a long term process, of course. I would not bet that CV19 will kill the Supra...
OP is also comparing to a time when people couldn't make money from home. People can actively make money while sitting in their own homes. Businesses can operate fine just being online. Things will be fine. Bit to pessimistic I think.
 
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Hakkim23

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It won't happen because ever since the Great Depression we have been really careful to not have another depression
We did have a recession in the early '90s and in 2008 but we've been able to come out of that within a couple of years
Hopefully, this outbreak gets contained soon so that we can all go back to normal and I don't think Toyota is going to stop making the Supra anytime soon
 

alan7467

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Let's just say it's going to be a buyer's market soon...
For sure. Outside of car companies completely folding it's difficult to imagine a near future where massive discounts and incentives aren't being thrown at customers. I think it would be prudent for all major automakers to start doing this with the new month tomorrow (if they haven't already) before the entire country is locked down (as it should be).
 

Dick

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Specifically regarding a recession/depression -- I'm not so sure. The issues we are having in our economy right now are not systemic; this downturn is directly due to temporary restrictions placed on the populace. You have to wonder about the bounce back as well, as some people are still able to work from home and collect a salary at the moment. Personally, if this only lasts through the end of April, even though I'll get 0 of that $1,200 my typical day to day expenses have dropped sharply.

Regarding the Supra... well, who knows. If BMW/Toyota stick to the same platform that would reduce development costs which again, could be split among the two companies. Only sheet metal changes and a new powertrain (performance hybrid most likely) that could also be used across the line-up would be ideal in terms of development resources and doable even with a limited market. Just my own personal speculation.
 

DesmoSD

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Specifically regarding a recession/depression -- I'm not so sure. The issues we are having in our economy right now are not systemic; this downturn is directly due to temporary restrictions placed on the populace. You have to wonder about the bounce back as well, as some people are still able to work from home and collect a salary at the moment. Personally, if this only lasts through the end of April, even though I'll get 0 of that $1,200 my typical day to day expenses have dropped sharply.

Regarding the Supra... well, who knows. If BMW/Toyota stick to the same platform that would reduce development costs which again, could be split among the two companies. Only sheet metal changes and a new powertrain (performance hybrid most likely) that could also be used across the line-up would be ideal in terms of development resources and doable even with a limited market. Just my own personal speculation.
True, this isn't in the same magnitude but this will have an impact on potential buyers and those who spend lawlessly. This will be more of a reality check from those who didn't listen to the many financial advisers who pitched having a 6-9 month emergency fund, reduce both front and back end debt. Those who don't have the flexibility of working from home will suffer the most as we're seeing the private sector getting reamed hard.

To add fuel to the fire, dealerships are still being too exclusive, having mark ups further pushing away buyers. New cars coming out will further push this Supra to it's early grave. The MKV is already a sinking ship.
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