Used car market predictions

SupraNews

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The prediction is 20 was that 2021 would be when this cleared up LOL
Just going with the flow too many factors in a car market that is complex to really make any definitive statements.
 
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RenRed2

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The Gas Price Spike Already Has Car Buyers Scrambling to Find 'Greener' Vehicles
Searches for electric and hybrid options are way up. But good luck actually finding those vehicles if you want one.

https://www.thedrive.com/news/44686...ar-buyers-scrambling-to-find-greener-vehicles
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Well, that didn't take long. Amid the recent rush of news reports that gas prices in the U.S. are climbing to their highest levels since the Great Recession, American car owners are already looking at greener, more fuel-efficient options. But they may not have much luck if they're actually in the market for a gas-sipping (or electron-driven) option.
Car-buying website Edmunds.com announced on Thursday that the number of potential buyers on their site who are searching for hybrid, plug-in hybrid and battery electric cars is up 39 percent over the previous month, and 18 percent over the previous week. Of the shoppers who visited Edmunds during the week ending March 6, the website said, 17.9 percent researched a "green vehicle."
One thing that's key to note is that the data in question is for the week ending March 6, which is a few days before President Biden announced the U.S. will ban oil imports from Russia in response to that country's invasion of Ukraine. In his speech announcing the move, Biden was very clear that gas prices would likely go up as a result, so presumably, the scramble for greener cars will only get more intense in the next few weeks.
Additionally, Cars.com reports that searches for new and used EVs increased by 112 percent as of March 8 vs. the week prior. New EV searches on that site are up by 83 percent and searches for used models are up 130 percent, with many buyers likely balking at the high price of several brand-new electric cars.
But as we reported Wednesday, while gas spikes have historically led buyers to switch to more fuel-efficient optionsā€”as they're clearly seeking to do hereā€”the pandemic-driven semiconductor and materials shortage has severely limited the supply of new cars. Car prices, too, are at record levels, so even if you can find something you want to buy, you'll be paying out the nose for it in ways that you weren't in 2019. The average new car cost rose to $46,085 in February, and as Jessica Caldwell, Edmundsā€™ executive director of insights, noted in an email, modern EVs tend to be more expensive options. As Edmunds notes, if you can even find one, the average transaction price for a new EV was $60,054 in February (though it's unclear how tax incentives figure into that number.)

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James Gilboy/The Drive


ā€œGreen vehiclesā€”notably EVsā€”have grown increasingly top of mind for American consumers over the last year as more automakers have generated buzz around new products and made strong commitments to an electrified future. But the major surge in interest of late is certainly more of a reaction to record gas prices sparked by the war in Ukraine,ā€ Caldwell said. ā€œUnfortunately, making an EV purchase is not particularly easy to do right now amid inventory shortages, and price-sensitive consumers most affected by gas price hikes will likely find that making the switch is also a bit out of financial reach due to the premiums that these vehicles command.ā€
So while buying an EV will save you gas in the long run, and is increasingly palatable for environmental (and performance) reasons, right now, it's no guarantee that you will actually save money. And again, that's if you can even find one at a reasonable price. The promising 2022 Kia EV6 that we recently tested came in at $57,115 in loaded AWD form, and it's not been uncommon to see some in the $60,000 to $70,000 range. To make matters worse, car dealers are going hog wild with the price markups right now, even when automakers are begging them to cut it out.

With all that in mind, what do you do if you want to buy a new car right now? There are a number of strategies you can employ, but the key is to be flexible. If you don't need a new car immediately and can wait to make a purchase, you probably should go that route. Otherwise, be flexible on what models and options you want, and be prepared to look further outside your area than you normally would. Used car prices have gotten just as high, so the same applies on that front. And remember: If you're buying a new EV, you probably shouldn't be doing so right now if cost savings are your primary goal.
ā€œThere are very few scenarios in todayā€™s market in which the impulse purchase of a new vehicleā€”EV or notā€”just to save on fuel costs will result in savings. Once you factor in the monthly payment and insurance costs, youā€™re likely going to be spending more than you will save in gas,ā€ Ivan Drury, Edmundsā€™ senior manager of insights, said in an email. ā€œBut if youā€™re already in the market for a replacement vehicle, you could view this surge in fuel prices as a reminder that, although many other aspects of vehicle ownership have set monthly costs, fueling can vary significantly. Since purchasing the most fuel-efficient vehicle possible is the only way to minimize this variable, now might be the time to consider a partially or fully electrified powertrain.ā€
In other words, a gently used hybrid may be a better option if you're sweating it at the pump. Or a bus pass.
 

Cptnslo

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Well they said teslas orders have gone up 100% in the past week and with the production of neon gas being used in microchips from Ukraine I see the market dealing with more microchip shortages which in turn will lead to the used market probably staying just as ridiculous as it is right now. Also means more delays in new models
 

B58_ hwAyaq

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Car and Driver says car shortages will last through 2023-2024 - https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a39357957/car-prices-high-when-will-change/

ā€œ"With pre-owned cars, they're three years behind on average because that's when you get the off-lease vehicles. So we already know the volume of [used] vehicles available on the market in in 2023 and 2024 is going to be substantially lower." And that means higher prices at least two more years out.ā€
 
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RenRed2

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Exactly whatā€™s been planned all along. The push toward EV.
No it was COVID and never ending supply chain chaos. That is now impacted by a major supplier of said required parts the world over under attack by large type fascist idiot terrorist regime called Russia.

Add new lockdowns in China's "Silicon Valley' due to COVID. The calculus on this is rather simple. Plus the pent up demand due to said lockdowns on top. So.................
 
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RenRed2

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Starting to be a 'used' market vs new. New volume shrinking due to low inventory and absurd pricing

New Car Sales Contract as Shortages Rage and High Prices Scare Buyers Away
Volumes of new car sales have dropped amidst difficult operating conditions.


https://www.thedrive.com/news/44964...rtages-rage-and-high-prices-scare-buyers-away

Car prices have hit record highs lately, whether new or used, as the law of supply and demand has played out with parts shortages crimping production numbers. These factors have combined into a perfect storm, with sales numbers of new vehicles are now projected to hit new lows in the US, as reported by Reuters.

Research from Cox Automotive projects that car and light truck sales will drop preciptiously, tanking by more than 24% in March to a low of just 1.22 million units sold. An overall decline of 16% is expected for Q1 this year, as high prices have buyers fleeing the market while chip shortages keep inventories low. The fall could see the US market reach the lowest Q1 volume figures for the past decade if trends hold.

The latest data has seen Cox Automotive drop its forecast for 2022 sales to just 15.3 million cars and light trucks, shedding 700,000 units from its predictions in January. This figure is also dependent on supply chain issues easingā€”a questionable proposition at the very least as Russia continues to wage a war of aggression in Ukraine, causing chaos throughout the auto industry and beyond.

The changing demographics in the new vehicle market are of note, with data suggesting customers on lower incomes are leaving the new vehicle market entirely. The average new car buyer now has an income of $124,000. Meanwhile, there has been a two percentage point drop in the light vehicle market made up of households earning under $75,000 a year. Hardest hit are the mainstream Detroit automakers, as well as Nissan, which has traditionally sold well to this market segment.

"Long term, you are shrinking the pool," said Cox Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke, noting that the number of people buying new vehicles will contract under these conditions. With a fraught geopolitical situation playing out in Europe, and supply chains just as frustrated as ever, don't expect new car volumes to spike any time soon. On the upside, if you're looking for a nice, quiet, relaxing job, maybe throw a few resumes in the post to your local dealerships.
 
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RenRed2

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B58_ hwAyaq

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Iā€™ve since decided that I really, really like the Supra and thereā€™s nothing else I feel really compelled to move into, so Iā€™m not as concerned as I was before about used values. Iā€™m also glad Iā€™m in an unlocked 2020. This powertrain and platform as a whole has so much potential for the price.

This should be good for those in the market for a used Supra, though.
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