Where are all the deals for the 2020?

Supra60

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Wow! These deals keep getting better and better. Waiting to see what the new incentives are for the Supra come Tuesday. Maybe 3500 rebate and zero percent finance? Might have to rethink the 2021 model.




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shayan9199

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I have been waiting to strike on a 2020 premium for a few months now and came across a used one, and would like some opinions on the price/specs/deal.

2020 Premium w/ driver assist package
350 miles
Private party deal (avoid paying 8.25% tax from a dealer, use car tax is $1500)
Price: $45,900

Maybe I’m just looking for reassurance, but seems like a great deal. First owner took the depreciation hit, and it’s practically a brand new car.

Thoughts? Should I wait for the new 2020’s sitting on dealer lots to drop a little more? Locally, the lowest price I’m finding is around $47.6k , with tax around $51.6k.
 

Coldskeet

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I have been waiting to strike on a 2020 premium for a few months now and came across a used one, and would like some opinions on the price/specs/deal.

2020 Premium w/ driver assist package
350 miles
Private party deal (avoid paying 8.25% tax from a dealer, use car tax is $1500)
Price: $45,900

Maybe I’m just looking for reassurance, but seems like a great deal. First owner took the depreciation hit, and it’s practically a brand new car.

Thoughts? Should I wait for the new 2020’s sitting on dealer lots to drop a little more? Locally, the lowest price I’m finding is around $47.6k , with tax around $51.6k.
That sounds like a solid deal. What color?
 

shayan9199

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Taking out a penfed payment saver loan- are you familiar with that?

You pretty much pay for the depreciation, which IMO most of it has been paid for already. They have a set residual value on where they expect the value of the car to be at the end of your term, and then you can either make a final balloon payment, refinance the vehicle, or sell. It is similar to a lease, but the risk seems to be shared between the lender and the buyer because you can’t just turn the vehicle in at the end of your term. They have the value at $34k in two years, and $29k in 3 years.

This won’t be my daily driver, and I expect to put at most, 5-7k miles on it. I am assuming that at the end of year 3, a 2020 Supra with less than 20k miles will be worth more than $29k.

Am I missing any risk factors here? I would hate to purchase the car and end up upside down on the loan. Typically on this kind of loan, I feel like you would be upside down, given the depreciation, but a deal like this seems hard to pass up.
 

Supra60

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Renaissance red.

Taking out a penfed payment saver loan- are you familiar with that?

You pretty much pay for the depreciation, which IMO most of it has been paid for already. They have a set residual value on where they expect the value of the car to be at the end of your term, and then you can either make a final balloon payment, refinance the vehicle, or sell. It is similar to a lease, but the risk seems to be shared between the lender and the buyer because you can’t just turn the vehicle in at the end of your term. They have the value at $34k in two years, and $29k in 3 years.

This won’t be my daily driver, and I expect to put at most, 5-7k miles on it. I am assuming that at the end of year 3, a 2020 Supra with less than 20k miles will be worth more than $29k.

Am I missing any risk factors here? I would hate to purchase the car and end up upside down on the loan. Typically on this kind of loan, I feel like you would be upside down, given the depreciation, but a deal like this seems hard to pass up.
Mind me asking what the payment would be on a loan like this? Never heard of it before but sounds interesting.
 

shayan9199

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Paying $480 a month, 36 months. At the end of term I will have a balloon of roughly 29k which I am going to either refinance or sell the vehicle depending on the market value.
 

thedude

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Paying $480 a month, 36 months. At the end of term I will have a balloon of roughly 29k which I am going to either refinance or sell the vehicle depending on the market value.
That sounds a lot better than a lease, also you probably don’t get hit with return fees and other hidden charges.

Also, the Toyota site says the 2021 Supra isn’t leasable (not sure if that’s temporary)...
 

Supra60

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Paying $480 a month, 36 months. At the end of term I will have a balloon of roughly 29k which I am going to either refinance or sell the vehicle depending on the market value.
Wow that does sound pretty reasonable. What’s the catch? Huge down payment? That seems a little too cheap if you do the math. What am I missing?
 

thedude

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Wow that does sound pretty reasonable. What’s the catch? Huge down payment? That seems a little too cheap if you do the math. What am I missing?
PenFed’s interest rates are super low. It could simply be that and a lack of dealership fu#kery.
 

shayan9199

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So the reason the payment is low is because the way the payment saver loan works - it has its benefits and negatives. The key is to get a good deal on the vehicle below MSRP.

MSRP - $56140
Purchase price - $45900
Down payment - $3300
Residual value @ 2 years - $34.5k
Residual value @ 3 years - $29.5k

2 years of payments @ $480 x 24 months = $11520
3 years of payments @ $480 x 36 months = $17280

At the end of 2 years, I will have to make a balloon payment of $34.5k, refinance, or sell/trade the vehicle.
At the end of 3 years, I will have to make a balloon payment of $29.5k, refinance, or sell/trade the vehicle.

The car currently has 330 miles and I am planning to keep mileage low, and those values are based on 12,000 miles yearly. My assumption is that in 2 years, a low mileage 2020 Supra Premium will be worth more than $34.5k so I will be in a position of positive equity and can decide what to do next.
 
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eyeye96

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So the reason the payment is low is because the way the payment saver loan works - it has its benefits and negatives. The key is to get a good deal on the vehicle below MSRP.

MSRP - $56140
Purchase price - $45900
Down payment - $3300
Residual value @ 2 years - $34.5k
Residual value @ 3 years - $29.5k

2 years of payments @ $480 x 24 months = $11520
3 years of payments @ $480 x 36 months = $17280

At the end of 2 years, I will have to make a balloon payment of $34.5k, refinance, or sell/trade the vehicle.
At the end of 3 years, I will have to make a balloon payment of $29.5k, refinance, or sell/trade the vehicle.

The car currently has 330 miles and I am planning to keep mileage low, and those values are based on 12,000 miles yearly. My assumption is that in 2 years, a low mileage 2020 Supra Premium will be worth more than $34.5k so I will be in a position of positive equity and can decide what to do next.
Arent the interest rates high on this loan. ii checked the penfed website and ti looks like you can get a much lower interest rate if you finance the whole car. Isnt it better to finance the whole amount and If you do want to sell it after 3 years then just sell the car and pay off the loan with that money. I did not do the complete math but you might end up paying less overall. Your monthly payments might be high but at the end of everything your cost of ownership might be lower. Just a hunch.
 

Dannyvandelft

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So the reason the payment is low is because the way the payment saver loan works - it has its benefits and negatives. The key is to get a good deal on the vehicle below MSRP.

MSRP - $56140
Purchase price - $45900
Down payment - $3300
Residual value @ 2 years - $34.5k
Residual value @ 3 years - $29.5k

2 years of payments @ $480 x 24 months = $11520
3 years of payments @ $480 x 36 months = $17280

At the end of 2 years, I will have to make a balloon payment of $34.5k, refinance, or sell/trade the vehicle.
At the end of 3 years, I will have to make a balloon payment of $29.5k, refinance, or sell/trade the vehicle.

The car currently has 330 miles and I am planning to keep mileage low, and those values are based on 12,000 miles yearly. My assumption is that in 2 years, a low mileage 2020 Supra Premium will be worth more than $34.5k so I will be in a position of positive equity and can decide what to do next.
It won't be worth more than that. This is a very dumb way to "buy" a depreciating product. It's a way to "buy" a car, you can't afford. I would never go down this road because you are setting yourself up to be fucked when the term ends.
Finance the whole thing, or lease, where there's no surprises. If you can't swing that, don't get the car. Never ever do balloon payments.
 

shayan9199

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I appreciate both of your viewpoints on this - thank you. To be honest, the thought of making a $770 car payment monthly over 60 months is not ideal, but I can afford it. The savings from that monthly payment could be used for a down payment on a home, investments, etc.

Here is an excel chart I made that helps me think about it and ultimately making me decide going this route, but please let me know if there is anything I am missing besides the final balloon payment. I will be planning to exit the vehicle or refinancing prior to the end of the 36 months. With the traditional 60 month, I would have $11k in equity but I am also paying the $11k in payments. So what difference does that make?

Penfedvstraditional.jpg
 

Dannyvandelft

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I appreciate both of your viewpoints on this - thank you. To be honest, the thought of making a $770 car payment monthly over 60 months is not ideal, but I can afford it. The savings from that monthly payment could be used for a down payment on a home, investments, etc.

Here is an excel chart I made that helps me think about it and ultimately making me decide going this route, but please let me know if there is anything I am missing besides the final balloon payment. I will be planning to exit the vehicle or refinancing prior to the end of the 36 months. With the traditional 60 month, I would have $11k in equity but I am also paying the $11k in payments. So what difference does that make?

Penfedvstraditional.jpg
You're basing it off a value the car MIGHT have in 3 years.
If the car is worth a lot less, the balloon payment will be more than the car is worth. You'll either have to sell the car at a loss and pay the difference, or refinance the balloon payment for more than the car is worth. Either way, you'll be backed into a corner. If you would've paid (yes it's paid, not payed for illiterate fools reading along, drives me crazy lol! Anyway) the regular payments, you would hopefully have some equity. How much, nobody knows what it'll be worth by then.
 

shayan9199

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True- the risk of that is there. However, to counteract that, the car will be kept low mileage (less than 18k miles) to offset the risk of the car depreciating at a rate faster than the expected residual value.

I suggest you read up on these loans, and not assume that all balloon loans are terrible. There are actually people that do this with Porsche’s that hold their value quite well, and are able to drive a Porsche around for a year or two and flip it without paying an arm and a leg. Those cars have historical data on their side, whereas the 2020 Supra really doesn’t at this point.

Either way, whichever route I decide to take, I am pretty set on purchasing a 2020 Supra. Whether it’s this one with this loan, or a different Supra with different terms.

Thanks for your insight.
 

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